全球减产或有望 油价小幅上涨

中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社4月7日伦敦报道，油价周二小幅升至正区间，因全球主要产油国将同意减产的希望盖过了分析师对全球经济衰退可能比预期更严重的担忧。

截至格林威治时间09:36，布伦特原油LCOc1上涨83美分，涨幅2.5%，至每桶33.88美元，周一跌幅超过3%。西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)上涨95美分，至27.03美元，涨幅3.6%，前一交易日下跌近8%。

法国巴黎银行分析师Harry Tchilinguirian在接受路透社全球石油论坛采访时称：“市场预期建立在每日减产1000万桶或至少接近1000万桶的基础上，油价持稳。”

消息人士对路透社表示，包括沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯在内的全球主要产油国预计将在周四的会议上同意减产，但这将取决于美国是否加入。

然而，在疫情对经济活动造成打击后，严重衰退的威胁笼罩着市场，全球一半人口处于某种形式的封锁或社会隔离措施之下。

全球石油需求下降了30%之多，与此同时，沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯在之前的一份产量协议破裂后，采取了向市场大量供应额外石油的举措。

雷斯塔能源的Bjornar Tonhaugen表示：“4月和5月石油市场将分别出现每日2800万桶和2100万桶的供过于求，真正需要的全球协同减产量可能过大，产油国难以接受；也许是讨论数字的两倍。”

欧佩克和包括俄罗斯在内的其他产油国近年来一直在削减产量，尽管美国提高了自己的产量，成为世界上最大的原油生产国。

美国是否会加入任何限制供应的协调行动，这是个问题。

裘寅 编译自 路透社

原文如下：

Oil rises as hopes build for global production cut

Oil prices clawed their way into positive territory on Tuesday as hopes that the world’s biggest producers will agree to cut output outweighed analyst fears that a global recession in the wake of the coronavirus crisis could be deeper than expected.

Brent crude LCOc1 was up 83 cents, or 2.5%, at $33.88 a barrel by 0936 GMT after falling more than 3% on Monday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was up 95 cents, or 3.6%, at $27.03, having dropped nearly 8% in the previous session.

“Oil prices are holding their ground with market expectations building on an agreement for an output reduction of 10 million barrels per day (bpd), or at least close to 10 million bpd,” BNP Paribas analyst Harry Tchilinguirian told the Reuters Global Oil Forum.

The world’s main oil producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are expected to agree to cut output at a meeting on Thursday, though that would depend on the United States joining in, sources told Reuters.

However, the threat of a major recession hangs over the market after the hit to economic activity as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, with half the global population under some form of lockdown or social distancing measures.

Worldwide oil demand has dropped by as much as 30%, coinciding with moves by Saudi Arabia and Russia to flood markets with extra supply after a previous output deal fell apart.

“With 28 million bpd of oversupply in the oil market in April and 21 million bpd in May, the global coordinated production cuts that are really needed may be too large for the producers to accept; perhaps twice as large as the numbers being discussed,” said Rystad Energy’s Bjornar Tonhaugen.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, had been curtailing production in recent years even as the United States ramped up its own output to become the world’s biggest crude producer.

There are questions whether the United States would join any coordinated action to curb supply.

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