欧佩克已认识到全球需求的不足

中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价4月6日报道，沙特与俄罗斯此前放弃减产，导致石油供应激增，加上全球需求暴跌，当石油市场陷入前所未有的危机，欧佩克+减产协议的达成意味着，该组织已认识全球需求的不足。

能源是经济的一部分，而石油是世界上最大和最具生产力的能源。50年来，全球经济一直因累积债务而面临巨大危机，当前更是走到了悬崖边缘。

当前市场需求的下降幅度是自上世纪80年代以来，甚至可能是有史以来最大的。许多可靠的消息来源估计了2020年的需求水平，但迄今为止几乎没有确切数据。

到2020年第二季度，全球石油日需求量最大将减少1800万桶，且第三季度经济是否会复苏还不能下定论。在需求如此疲软，价格如此低廉的情况下，全球石油生产商将被迫停产。俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯可能同意减产的唯一原因是，除了减产他们别无选择。

产量协议将导致更高的油价——至少在一段时间内。西德克萨斯中质油价格为30美元/桶，布伦特原油价格为35美元/桶。这两种原油的价格至少被低估了20美元，因此价格还有上涨的空间。值得注意点是，在目前的情况下，供应下降的速度不可能和需求下降的速度保持一致。一旦市场对此持怀疑态度，价格可能会暴跌到比3月底更低的水平。

多数分析师认为，由于需求下降，全球石油储备很快就会满负荷运转。美国页岩油产量将继续占该国石油产量的一半以上，但总产量可能会更低。许多公司将会破产。石油产量或价格会或将在许多年后才能恢复到2018年的水平。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Why The OPEC+ Output Cut Is Irrelevant

I’m in favor of the global output cut orchestrated by President Trump but let’s recognize it for what it is: largely irrelevant. Mohammed bin Salman and Vladimir Putin were glad to burn down the world a month ago when they walked away from production cuts. They had dueling temper tantrums in the junior high locker room while the world descended into economic Armageddon.

An agreement means conceding to the lack of demand for their oil.

Energy is the economy and oil is the largest and most productive part of world energy. The global economy has been dying of accumulated debt for 50 years. Coronavirus has sent it to the intensive care unit.

The closing of the world economy has caused the greatest demand decrease at least since the 1980s and probably ever. Many credible sources have estimated demand levels for 2020 but there is little data so far.

I have integrated many estimates into a possible scenario. It is based on expectations of how long the economy may be closed and how this will affect oil supply, demand and price. It anticipates an 18 million barrel per day maximum annual demand decrease in the second quarter of 2020. Unlike other models, it does not include a rapid economic recovery in the third quarter.

If the economic patient survives the ICU, it will need a long period of recovery and therapy before returning to its previous life.

Which brings me back to oil. Demand is so weak and price is so low that all producers in the world will be forced to shut in production. The only reason Russia and Saudi Arabia may agree to a cut is because they now see that they have no choice but to decrease output. They might as well look good doing what is inevitable anyway.

An output agreement will result in higher oil prices–for awhile anyway. At $30 WTI and $35 Brent, prices are at least $20 under-valued so there’s room for higher prices. The problem is that supply cannot possibly fall as fast as demand in the present situation. Once markets realize or even suspect that this is the case, prices will collapse maybe to even lower levels than in late March.

Most analysts believe that world oil storage will soon be filled to capacity because of falling demand.

Shale plays will continue to supply more than half of U.S. oil but total output may be lower. Many companies will disappear. I doubt that oil production or prices will return to 2018 levels for many years.